DryShips felt the impact of
fluctuating dry bulk shipping spot rates, as 33% of the company’s fleet is
exposed to spot rates. Dry bulk shipping rates fell this month due to several
factors such as:
1. This year, the Chinese
New Year falls on January 31, and because of the holiday, most of China and
Vietnam will be shut down from January 29 through February 6. Due to the
holidays, shipping to Asian countries slowed down for the month of January,
which consequently impacted shipping rates. It is a seasonal trend, and the
shipments are expected to improve beginning next month.
2. Another cause for the
price fall is coal shipment suspension in Colombia, from where Europe imports
20% of its coal. Colombia passed a rule requiring coal producers to build a
direct ship loading facility at the port instead of using cranes and barges in
order to reduce pollution. Loading facilities are expected to be installed by
March this year, which will normalize the shipment.
Since mainly short-term
factors are influencing spot prices, the situation will improve once these
situations normalize. The outlook for dry bulk trade is expected to be positive
this year. In 2014, dry bulk export demand is expected to grow 8% compared to
fleet growth of 6%, so demand is expected to exceed the supply of vessels which
will reverse the trend.
With rising global dry bulk
trade, shipping spot rates will also improve, and DryShips is in a good
position to take advantage of the rising rates due to its exposure to spot
rates. Out of its 24 Panamax vessels, 16 are operating on the spot rate basis.
Its two Supramax vessels are also operating on the spot rate basis.
Most of the company’s
Capesize vessels are currently in long-term contracts on a fixed rate basis,
and the majority of these vessels’ contract periods will end in 2018. Operating
on a fixed rate basis will help the company in the current low spot price
scenario, as Capesize vessel spot prices fell about 50% this month compared to
last month. The current Capesize spot price is about $11,000, but its 10
vessels are operating at price of more than $20,000. When shipping spot rates
are falling, using a fixed rate is an advantage for the company, but as prices
are expected to rise in coming months, the company will only receive the
benefits of rising prices from its Panamax and Supramax vessels.
Spot rates’ impact on other
dry shippers
DryShips has two main
competitors, Genco Shipping & Trading (GNK) and Diana Shipping (DSX). Spot
rate volatility will have a different impact on each of these companies. Genco
has 53 vessels and 42 of these vessels operate on spot rates or link to the
spot rate. These 42 vessels include 9 Capesize, 8 Panamax, 12 Supramax, and 13
Handysize and Handymax vessels. Therefore, volatility in spot rates for all
five classes of vessels will affect the company’s revenue. On the other hand,
all 36 of Diana Shipping’s vessels operate on the fixed rate basis, providing
the company with stable revenue, despite movement in the spot rate prices.
DryShips, on the other hand,
is nimble enough to be able to adjust to price volatility since its Capesize
vessels are in fixed rate contracts, while Panamax and Supramax operate on spot
rates.
New equity offering to
improve financial position
DryShips has shown
intentions to resume its $200 million market price equity offering program,
which it suspended in the beginning of December last year. The company stated
that the reason behind this offering is to repay some or all of this year’s
mandatory debt repayment of $150 million. DryShips already issued 6,892,233
equity shares under the program which generated gross proceeds of about $24.1
million. With the remaining $175 million, analysts are expecting the company to
issue about 37 million shares. With the potential share offerings, dilution may
have a negative impact on the share price over the short-term.
However, additional equity
will help the company improve its liquidity position. At the end of the third
quarter in 2013, the company had $678.6 million of cash and cash equivalents.
The additional proceeds through equity sales will further strengthen the
company’s financial position.
Potential events can change
the company’s liquidity position
The company’s four new
Panamax vessels are expected to be delivered this year. However, the company
stated that the vessel developing company, Rongsheng, is facing difficulties,
and there is a high probability that the vessels may not be delivered. If
delivery occurs, the company has to allocate about $98 million for the
remaining contracts.
Also, the company’s
convertible notes worth $700 million are going to mature in December this year.
The company suggested that it will try to extend maturity by refinancing
through the note holders, but even if it doesn’t refinance due to additional
equity sales, the company will be in a better position to redeem the notes.
Conclusion
Due to short-term factors,
shipping rates are currently on the lower side, but the rates are expected to
rise due to positive dry bulk trade outlook. Since almost one-third of its
fleet is exposed to the spot rates, DryShips will reap the benefits. However,
the company’s liquidity position may change in the coming months due to events
like new vessel deliveries and maturing convertible notes. The company has also
stated its intention to resume its equity sales, which will further increase
dilution risk.
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